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Risky assets could extend uptrend for several more weeks
By Puru Saxena
Published: Feb 4 2012 8:24
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On Wednesday, the market gave a ‘buy’ signal. Unless a credit event occurs in Europe, it is likely that the ongoing uptrend in risky assets will continue for several more weeks.

Looking at various data points, it is worth noting that approximately 70 percent of the stocks on the NYSE are above the 200-day moving average, the 3-month LIBOR has declined to 53bps, new 52-week highs are significantly greater than the 52-week lows and the NYSE Advance/Decline Line has climbed to a new high! Last but not least, the world’s reserve currency is weakening and this suggests that risk aversion is over for now.

Turning to specific stock markets, it is notable that all the major US indices are trading above the 200-day moving average and the vast majority of the international indices have also climbed above that critical level. This is a positive development which indicates that the ongoing global rally has legs.

Over in the energy complex, NYMEX crude is trading below US$100 per barrel and this low-growth environment reduces the probability of a massive rally.

In any event, should the US Dollar continue to weaken, it is conceivable that the price of oil will continue to drift higher. Elsewhere, it is interesting to note that uranium is still in a base building period and long-term investors can consider buying into the related mining stocks.

In the metals camp, Dr. Copper is currently flirting with its 200-day moving average and its next move will tell us a lot about the future of economic activity.

With US interest rates at near zero for at least another three years and a massive European bailout on the horizon, we are moderately positive about copper’s outlook. Turning to precious metals, gold bugs will be delighted to know that the price of the yellow metal is back above the 200-day moving average and its downtrend has been negated. After all, US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke is the gold bug’s best friend and as long as he is in charge of the monetary levers, you can be sure that the world’s reserve currency will continue its southbound journey.

When observing the currency market, we cannot help but feel that the rally in the US Dollar is over for now. Unsurprisingly, the Australian Dollar is leading the way and the Canadian Dollar is approaching parity. As long as the US Dollar remains in a downtrend, these currencies will continue to advance and over in the developing world, I see great upside in the Indian Rupee.

Finally, in the bond market, Bernanke’s free money policy has triggered a massive rush for yield and investors are buying all sorts of bonds.

Currently, US Treasuries, German Bunds and all the other lesser quality bonds are rising in tandem and this is a remarkable feat! With the Federal Reserve on “hold” for at least another three years, the bond market rally is likely to continue and will only be interrupted by another round of quantitative easing.

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